A sobering report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) finds that at-home food prices increased 11.4 percent in 2022 as compared to 2021. The steepest increases were seen in eggs, fats and oils, poultry, cereals and bakery products, dairy products and a catch-all category of “other meats” (when broken out, fish/seafood and beef/veal saw smaller than average price increases). And if that isn’t startling enough, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that after-tax median income fell 8.8 percent during the same period. It’s not that there is a food shortage in the U.S., but rather that affordable food may be in short supply. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reports that both food insecurity and very low food security (the former includes both “low” and “very low” food security) increased between 2021-2022. A federal task force charged with promoting precision agriculture may help moderate those pressures over the long term.
The 2018 Farm Bill directed the FCC, in consultation with USDA, to develop guidance for increasing broadband deployment in unserved agricultural areas. The Precision Ag Task Force (a shortened version of its official 16-word name and referred to informally as the PATF) was first chartered in late 2019; rechartered two years later; and is now in its third and final term.
This week, I participated in this term’s first meeting of the PATF. For the past four years, I served on a working group studying adoption and the creation of high-skilled jobs on farms, and in the final year am serving as NTCA’s representative on the Task Force itself. This past Wednesday set the stage for an intensive year ahead to assess cost inputs, efficiencies, data requirements, interoperability, cybersecurity and other similar ag-related issues.
Let’s return to food prices and affordability. The largest cost inputs in crop farming include chemicals and equipment. In animal farming, feed is the largest input, accounting for about 40%-60% of costs associated with beef production. Broadband-enabled ag tech can lower input costs (and improve outputs) significantly. See-and-spray systems that rely on AI imaging and cloud processing can cut chemical consumption by 60% or more. Weather-responsive equipment that can dispatch itself in the middle of the night can reduce planting costs from $0.25 to $0.07 per horsepower hour. The data requirements are stunning: FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr explained a single plant can trigger an 18GB need for cloud-based data imaging in AI-driven ag tech; a corn field presents more than 28-times the amount of data in the Library of Congress.
Farm labor is changing, too. John Deere recently announced that corn and soybean production could be autonomous by 2030 (the United States is the world’s largest corn producer, and it’s the second-largest producer of soybeans). Many prototype field vehicles at Agritechnica 2023, a trade fair for ag machinery, did not include accommodations for humans. AI-driven drones can distribute 18 gallons of chemicals across 50 acres in an hour. But even if there are concerns that “the robots are taking over,” an automated, ag-tech-driven, AI-enabled farm will still require workers – albeit highly skilled workers who can operate, maintain, troubleshoot and repair complex computer-driven equipment in challenging environments. Remember all the advice to keep crumbs and drinks far from your desktop? Is there a wetter or more dusty workspace than a field or barn?
Ultimate assessments of how ag tech can ease food prices will require nuanced economic studies. The economic impact of any factor in a sector industry can be a tricky endeavor because it calls for creating a universe that existed without the introduction of that factor; a thorough post-hoc review must always account for other intervening events that could have affected outcomes. For example, in any period studying the impact of ag tech on food prices, adjustment for fuel, labor and packaging costs would need to be accounted. But ag presents a highly measurable field of inquiry: Cost adjustments for equipment and labor and other inputs such as chemical or feed can be calculated to create the counterfactual universe in which ag tech was not implemented, enabling a rational measurement against farm outcomes from a broadband-enabled producer. This type of research is ongoing. USDA ERS issued a comprehensive analysis of ag tech in 2023; several years earlier, the FCC took a specific look at the impact of broadband on farm productivity. A Government Accountability Office report released this week explores in-ground sensors and automation, and pointed to benefits including increased farm profits and environmental gains. And NTCA’s Smart Rural Community published a report examining ag tech, including adoption rates and projected efficiency gains. USDA and the FCC acknowledge the need for further research, but generally support the widely held assumption that broadband-enabled ag tech can lower costs while increasing efficiency. These outcomes can moderate food price increases and ease food insecurity, though the extent of those impacts will depend on stability or instability of other inputs.
Please visit the FCC Precision Ag Task Force's webpage for additional information.